Climate Change Adaptation

Tanzania is not a highly significant emitter of greenhouse gases, but scientists expect the country to suffer significant negative impacts from climate change. Predictions include rise in temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and reducing surface flows. It is predicted that Pangani Basin will be especially hard hit by negative climate change impacts. The famous glacial ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro is expected to disappear completely by 2025. Climate researchers in Tanzania predict a 1.8 - 3.6º Celsius temperature increase, decreasing rainfall and increased evaporation in the basin. All these circumstances together are expected to result in a 6-10 % decrease in annual service flows in the basin.

The expected decrease in water flows will jeopardize important natural resources, livelihoods, industrial productivity and the local and national economies.
The Pangani River Basin Management Project focuses on understanding climate change impacts in the water sector, promoting collaboration between the water and climate change sectors, piloting adaptation actions and exchanging experiences and lessons.

Climate change modeling
A detailed climate change modeling study was carried out in the Pangani River Basin by the University of Cape Town, Climate Systems Analysis Group The climate change impacts are expected to include:
• Decrease in rainfall during May - October period;
• Reference evapotranspiration projected to increase most in October by approximately 10 mm;
• Increase in November-March rainfall;
• Minimum temperatures increase by approximately 2°C (range of 1-3°C) during all months;
• Maximum temperatures increase in July-November;
• The seasonality of stream-flows in the Pangani is likely to be changed due to hotter and drier periods (especially towards the end of the dry season), though the magnitude of this change will vary across the sub-catchments and its impact will depend on water extractions and the characteristics of each subcatchment.

Vulnerability assessment
Climate change vulnerability assessments were conducted to identify adaptation activities that can increase community resilience to climate change impact s predicted through the climate change modeling and community observations.

Facilitators used a combination of adaptation and participatory tools to gather information on the local livelihood and climate context. These included the Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis Tool (CVCA) and Community-based Risk Screening Tool:
Adaptation and Livelihood (CRiSTAL).

CRiSTAL enables project planners and managers to: (a) understand the links between local livelihoods and climate; (b) assess the impact of adaptation approaches on livelihood resources important for climate adaptation; and (c) devise adjustments to improve adaptation approaches impact on these key livelihood resources. CRiSTAL is often used as a decision support tool using information gathered through CVCA.

The CVCA methodology helps users understand the implications of climate risk (climate variability and change) for the lives and livelihoods of the people we serve. By combining local knowledge with scientific climate information, the process builds people’s understanding about climate risks and adaptation strategies. It provides a framework for dialogue within communities, as well as between communities and other stakeholders.

Assessments took place in five villages within Kikuletwa catchment and three villages in Pangani mainstream catchment . These are; Manyata, Lekitatu, Mbuguni, Shambarai Burka and Olbil Villages ( Kikuletwa Catchment ) and Ruvu Mferejini, Ruvu Jiungeni (Chambogo sub village), and Makanya villages (Pangani Mainstream Catchment ).

Implementing adaptation actions
Identified adaptation activities in both sub-catchments are being piloted through funding from UNDP (through the Pangani River Basin Management Project (PRBMP), Climate Change and Development Project (CCDP) and the Global Water Initiative (GWI).

Partners and Sponsors

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Our Contacts

Pangani River Basin Management Project
P. O Box 7617 - Moshi, Tanzania.

Tel.: +255 (0)27 275 2780
Fax: +255 (027) 2753097
Email: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)